Russia accelerates movement of military hardware towards Ukraine, satellite images show

According to new satellite data obtained by CNN, a huge facility near the Ukrainian border that stored Russian tanks, artillery, and other armor has been entirely vacated, with the equipment presumably being transferred considerably closer to the border in recent days.

The facility is located near Yelnya, some 160 miles from the Ukrainian border and southeast of Smolensk. Late in 2021, a large amount of armament was sent there, including 700 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and ballistic missile launchers.
According to radar satellite images taken on February 6, much of the equipment has since vanished. For several days, cloud cover has precluded camera images of the scene. The photographs depict the tracks of automobiles that have left the scene.

"It appears to me that a significant amount of the vehicles [tanks, self-propelled artillery, and other support vehicles] have departed from the northeastern vehicle park; additional armored vehicles departed from the more central vehicle park," Stephen Wood, senior director at satellite imagery company Maxar, told CNN.

According to Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting, what happened at Yelnya is one of numerous "significant shifts in Russian force compositions and their placements."
"We are entering a new stage of the build-up," he told CNN, "where we are seeing pre-positioned units being staffed with extra troops and that equipment is presumably being relocated to staging places."
Some of that equipment may be seen on trains and roads far further south in the Bryansk area, which is close to Ukraine, in social media footage filmed in the previous few days. The armor and vehicles are clearly from the same pre-positioned troops at Yelnya.

"Multiple evidence now implies troops have begun to deploy to advanced camps to join up with their prepositioned equipment," says Janes analyst Thomas Bullock. "Some troops from Siberia, whose equipment has already been relocated to places in Smolensk and Bryansk, are in the process of deploying, according to a video shared on social media."

The location at Yelnya was unoccupied in June, according to a US intelligence dossier dated December 3, 2021, but by November it was home to five Battalion Tactical Groups, each with roughly 1,000 troops and supporting personnel. The 41st Combined Arms Army, which is ordinarily located in Russia's Central Military District and has its headquarters in Novosibirsk, Siberia, owns much of the weaponry.
According to Muzyka, there are significant Russian movements in other countries. He tweeted on Sunday, "We are observing a big influx of cars and men in Kursk." Kursk is around 70 miles (100 kilometers) from Ukraine's border.

According to Muzyka, there are significant Russian movements in other countries. He tweeted on Sunday, "We are observing a big influx of cars and men in Kursk." Kursk is around 70 miles (100 kilometers) from Ukraine's border.
"Russia's strongest offensive formation — the First Guards Tank Army, which is normally stationed in the Moscow area — has moved south 400 kilometers and is assembling in the optimum area for a rapid armored offensive on the Kursk-Kyiv invasion route," said Phillip Karber of the Potomac Foundation in Washington, who has also studied Russian troop movements in detail.

Jake Sullivan, the US national security advisor, told ABC News on Sunday: "We believe there is a strong likelihood that Vladimir Putin will launch a military strike on Ukraine. It might come in a variety of shapes and sizes. It might happen as soon as tomorrow or take several weeks."
Separately, US sources informed CNN over the weekend that Russian President Vladimir Putin has gathered 70% of the military forces and weaponry needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the country's borders.
An increasing force in southern Belarus is part of this.
The Kremlin has rejected any intentions for a military strike against Ukraine on several occasions.