Although demand for Covid-19 testing is decreasing, experts warn that it is still vital.
According to Mara Aspinall, a professor of practice in biomedical diagnostics at Arizona State University, there are two reasons for the decline. On the one hand, cases are decreasing, while on the other, demand is beginning to decrease.
Boakyewaa Lawrencia 
Covid-19 testing has dropped to a fraction of what it was at the start of the year as the US emerges from the Omicron wave.
Around 2.5 million tests were processed each day in the United States in mid-January, as daily case counts peaked. According to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services, around 670,000 tests are performed each day.
The official data records findings from over 1,000 laboratories and testing centers around the country, but it excludes the vast majority of at-home tests, which have surged in popularity as supplies have become more freely available.
However, demand appears to have decreased there as well. According to a business spokeswoman, since the Omicron peak, demand for home testing has decreased at one large retailer, CVS.
According to Kevin Munoz, White House associate press secretary, fewer than 300 million of the 500 million free at-home Covid-19 tests made accessible by the Biden administration had been ordered.
According to Mara Aspinall, a professor of practice in biomedical diagnostics at Arizona State University, there are two reasons for the decline. On the one hand, cases are decreasing, while on the other, demand is beginning to decrease.
Cases have dropped by more than 90% since the pandemic's height, but the US is just now beginning to return to pre-Omicron levels, which is why Aspinall and other experts warn that now is the time to make sure the country is better prepared for surges.
"When it comes to earlier diseases and pandemics, the countries and communities that fared best were those who were most adaptable and could respond to existing demand," Aspinall said.
Too little, too late
"Part of the ongoing challenge of the pandemic has been the difficulty in ramping up testing as a surge is beginning, and unfortunately, time and time again, our testing efforts have been hampered by too little, too late," said Dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Even as tests seem more accessible now, it was just two months ago that the Omicron variant -- paired with the holiday season -- left Americans with long lines for testing sites and empty drugstore shelves.
Of the 22 million at-home tests sold last year at CVS, 70% were sold in the final three months of the year, according to a company spokesperson.
Throughout the pandemic, there have been warning signs that testing supplies would be strained.
During last year's Delta surge, testing rose quickly starting in July and held for months at levels previously seen during the first winter surge. One of the largest at-home test manufacturers, Abbott Laboratories, warned that there could be a shortage of supplies.
In September, the Biden administration announced that it would invest $2 billion in testing, and it added another billion in purchase agreements in October. However, that was only enough to provide the US with about 200 million at-home tests a month.
In October, Aspinal told CNN that these investments were a "significant step forward." But she added, "to use testing to eliminate onward transmission, the numbers are closer to testing at least 6 million a day."
The arrival of Omicron continued to re-emphasized the importance of the White House's efforts to remedy its testing shortage, including the distribution of those 500 million free at-home tests. But now, demand is going down.
"Certainly, the supply has increased just as the demand has started to level out or reduce, as the recent Omicron wave and COVID-related cases associated with it drop lower. This has created availability of tests that were not available when we needed them most, during the holidays," epidemiologist Dr. Michael Mina said.
Testing is still relevant
"Testing, especially as the Omicron wave goes down, does not lose its relevance," Mina emphasized. "Testing is how we see the virus. We can't see it if we do not test."
Sick people will be "in the dark" about whether their symptoms are from Covid-19, influenza, or a cold, he said, so it's key to have rapid antigen tests on hand before visiting with people who are vulnerable or when making decisions about whether to wear a mask or stay home from work.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends Covid-19 testing:
- If you have Covid-19 symptoms
- If you have known or suspected close contact with the coronavirus
- Before or after travel
- For screening in schools, workplaces, etc.
- When asked by a health care professional or public health official
Most important, Mina said, is that access to testing is "absolutely crucial to get treatment fast."
Both Pfizer's and Merck's Covid-19 antiviral treatments should be started within a few days of the start of symptoms, and since they require a prescription, this requires confirmation via a Covid-19 test.
Right now, the timeline for when people can get a positive test result and see a doctor start these treatments can put them out of the "therapeutically beneficial time frame," says Mina, who is also the chief science officer for the telehealth company named. The company's "Test-to-Treat" program immediately links someone who tests positive at home to treatment options.
"If we can stop hospitalizations, then even if cases increase again, the importance that the virus holds over us is greatly reduced," he said.
Continuing the momentum
During a White House Covid-19 briefing last month, Dr. Tom Inglesby, senior adviser to the White House on coronavirus response, acknowledged that demand for tests will wane as cases decline but announced a plan to help sustain testing momentum. Officials have sent a formal request to the testing industry for proposals on how to face market volatility and supply chain struggles, as well as ideas about how to scale up manufacturing.
Test manufacturers Quidel, Roche, and Abbott, which all have contracts with the US government, told CNN that they are committed to providing tests for Americans.
Abbott alone is "scaling toward producing 100 million tests a month in March," according to spokesperson John Koval.
However, Mina said these manufacturers still need financial incentives, especially when demand is down.
"The administration should provide guaranteed purchases to manufacturers so that they can scale their operations without fear that sales will slump. This happened last year and is part of what led to the testing crisis this winter," he said.
Tsai agrees that this kind of commitment is necessary and that a supply of tests should be kept in the Strategic National Stockpile, along with "clear plans for distribution to both hotspots and nationally."
"I think it will be challenging for testing manufacturers to continue producing a supply of tests without a clear market signal of ongoing demand. Rapid antigen tests need to be considered a public good," Tsai added.
Getting accustomed to testing
Although the White House continues to tout the 20,000 free Covid-19 testing centers across the country, one silver lining of the current surge may be that Americans are more comfortable testing at home.
"Most individuals, I believe, learn from their mistakes. And you say the test works and is simple to use, which is wonderful, but I think a lot of people are hesitant to just jump in until they've done it themselves until they've seen that it's as simple as they claim, as fast as they say, and as painless as they say. It's also a lot easier after you've done something once "Aspinall explained.
Although the White House continues to tout the 20,000 free Covid-19 testing centers across the country, one silver lining of the current surge may be that Americans are more comfortable testing at home.
"Most individuals, I believe, learn from their mistakes. And you say the test works and is simple to use, which is wonderful, but I think a lot of people are hesitant to just jump in until they've done it themselves until they've seen that it's as simple as they claim, as fast as they say, and as painless as they say. It's also a lot easier after you've done something once "Aspinall explained.
Many hurdles to testing have been removed, according to Aspinall, as a result of free testing and access to at-home exams.
Tsai sees this as a pivotal moment for the future of quick antigen testing, with improved education, access, and now supply.
"I'm happy that the Omicron wave has prompted a paradigm shift in the importance of fast antigen tests, and I hope that the Omicron wave's lessons on the critical function of testing as an early warning system are not forgotten in the future."
Tsai sees this as a pivotal moment for the future of quick antigen testing, with improved education, access, and now supply.
"I'm happy that the Omicron wave has prompted a paradigm shift in the importance of fast antigen tests, and I hope that the Omicron wave's lessons on the critical function of testing as an early warning system are not forgotten in the future."
