The West's $1 trillion attempt to bring Russia's economy to its knees

That job will be made more difficult by Russia's standing as a global energy provider. Russia supplies approximately 40% of Europe's natural gas and 25% of its oil, and any interruptions to those exports will drive up already high global prices even further.

The West's $1 trillion attempt to bring Russia's economy to its knees

The West has retaliated against Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a series of punitive measures. The current barrage is aimed at causing a banking crisis, overpowering Moscow's financial defenses, and plunging the Russian economy into a devastating recession.

According to analysts, no economy with the global significance of Russia has ever been sanctioned at this level, and there is now a strong danger that Russia could experience a financial crisis that will push its main banks to the edge of failure.

Western leaders have framed their campaign as an economic war aimed at punishing President Vladimir Putin and turning the country he governs into an international pariah, even if sanctions will take years to degrade Russia's "fortress economy."
On Tuesday, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told a local TV program, "We will precipitate the collapse of the Russian economy."


That job will be made more difficult by Russia's standing as a global energy provider. Russia supplies approximately 40% of Europe's natural gas and 25% of its oil, and any interruptions to those exports will drive up already high global prices even further.

How the West is fighting

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has been met with an unprecedented response from the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Japan, Australia, and other countries. Even Switzerland, famous for its neutrality and banking secrecy, has pledged to impose sanctions on Russia.
The West has cut off Russia's two largest banks, Sberbank (SBRCY) and VTB, from direct access to the US dollar. It has also taken steps to remove some Russian banks from SWIFT, a global messaging service that connects financial institutions and facilitates rapid and secure payments.
The coalition is trying to prevent Russia's central bank from selling dollars and other foreign currencies to defend the ruble and its economy. In total, nearly $1 trillion worth of Russian assets has now been frozen by sanctions, according to Le Maire.
"Western democracies have surprised many by pursuing a strategy of exerting intense economic pressure on Russia through effectively cutting it off from global financial markets," Oliver Allen, markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note.
"If Russia continues on its current path, it is quite easy to see how the latest sanctions could be just the first steps in a severe and enduring severing of Russia's financial and economic ties with the rest of the world," he added.
Western countries have ruled out sending troops to fight in Ukraine, leaving sanctions as the primary means of challenging Russia. The measures could wipe as much as 6% off Russia's gross domestic product, according to Oxford Economics.
"Our strategy, to put it simply, is to make sure that the Russian economy goes back as long as President Putin decides to go forward with his invasion of Ukraine," a senior US administration official told reporters.

Russia's 'fortress' economy

Since 2014, when the United States and its Western allies imposed sanctions on Moscow following the annexation of Crimea and the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, Putin has been trying to sanction-proof Russia's $1.5 trillion economies, the 11th largest in the world.
Moscow has attempted to wean its oil-dependent economy off the dollar, limited government spending, and stockpiled foreign currencies.
Putin's economic planners have also sought to boost domestic production of certain goods by blocking equivalent products from abroad. Russia's central bank has meanwhile amassed a war chest of $630 billion in reserves including foreign currencies and gold — a huge sum compared to most other countries.
Those defenses are now being severely tested.
The sanctions have rendered roughly 50% of Russia's foreign reserve stockpile useless, according to Capital Economics.
"External conditions for the Russian economy have drastically changed," the Russian central bank said Monday, announcing that it would roughly double interest rates to 20%. "This is needed to support financial and price stability and protect the savings of citizens from depreciation," the bank added.
What will happen next?
The Russian banking system is the center of attention.
Over the weekend, there were rumors that Russians were queuing for hours to withdraw cash from ATMs, raising the possibility of a bank run. Russian banks, which are already the target of sanctions, might face much more pressure if borrowers are unable to repay loans as the inevitable recession hits businesses and individuals.

Russian banks may be obliged to respond by selling assets, according to Liam Peach, an emerging markets analyst at Capital Economics. Credit may become scarce, exacerbating the economic consequences of the sanctions.
"The escalation of Western sanctions over the weekend has pushed Russian banks to the brink of collapse," Peach said.
The European unit of Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, which has been sanctioned by Western friends, was one of the first casualties. Sberbank Europe, including its Austrian and Croatian branches, was failing or about to fail, according to the European Central Bank, due to "substantial deposit outflows" precipitated by the crisis.

Another issue is that Russian banks only have enough foreign currency on hand to cover only 15% of their foreign currency deposits. The central bank would ordinarily provide foreign currency to banks, but with half of its war chest out of limits, it may not be able to do so while also defending the ruble.
For months, if not years, the central bank might be under pressure.
Russia's exports considerably outnumber its imports, thanks to oil and gas, and payments into the country are a substantial source of foreign currency. According to Capital Economics, as the ruble declines, investors and businesses may try to shift substantial quantities of foreign capital out of the nation, requiring the central bank to spend up to $100 billion of its available reserves this year.
At the same time, the West could retaliate even more forcefully. According to the Institute of International Finance, the US and its allies may withdraw more Russian banks from SWIFT and further restrict their access to dollars and euros. They could also halt Russian energy exports, however, this would result in a price increase.
The economic conflict's escalation might have far-reaching implications.
"Don't forget that economic warfare has frequently escalated into genuine wars in human history," former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev remarked in response to Le Maire's remarks on Thursday.