Ukraine: A pivotal battle for the "heart of the conflict" Mariupol

Russia appears to be on the verge of entirely seizing Mariupol, the beleaguered southern port city that has been subjected to a catastrophic six-week assault.

Officially, Ukraine's military forces claim to be maintaining their defense and are in "constant touch" with their ground soldiers. However, they acknowledge that Moscow is likely to try to take full control of the city, while a regional separatist leader backed by Russia claims Mariupol is on the verge of succumbing.

The Ukrainian military has stated that they have run out of ammunition and have been pushed back into two isolated pockets along the shore.

The fate of the city is likely to be crucial in the war's next phase. It would give Russia control over a large expanse of land connecting Moscow's two fronts in the south and east. It would allow President Vladimir Putin to redeploy a huge number of troops and give him a strategic "win" after a lethally shambolic initial stage of his invasion.

It would be a massive setback for Ukraine's government, which has referred to Mariupol as "the center of this battle today."

The encirclement of Mariupol by Russian soldiers began in early March. Thousands of civilians have died as a result of the siege and besieged residents are fighting for their lives.

Thousands of people have fled north, undertaking a life-threatening journey through the front lines. I've been watching civilians come to Zaporizhzhia day after day, recounting their experiences witnessing their city's obliteration.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces have moved in further in recent days by separating the final resistance of Mariupol's defenders (ISW).

Ukraine's soldiers are said to have been pushed back to the port area and the Azovstal complex, a major iron, and steel plant from where they had launched weeks of counter-attacks.

Fighters from the 36th marine brigade have been seen on video vowing not to surrender their positions.

In a video released to social media networks on Tuesday, one adds, "We're holding on to every bit of the city wherever feasible."

"However, the truth is that the city is besieged and blocked, and there was no ammo or food resupply," he continues. Part of the clip shows him in a chamber that appears to be a basement shelter with five other servicemen. One of the men has crutches leaning against his chair.

The situation was characterized as follows in a post on the brigade's Facebook page on Monday: "the final struggle... "For some of us, it's death, and for the rest, it's captivity," it added, adding that they had been "pushed back" and "surrounded." "Russian troops were present.

Analysts in Ukraine disagreed about whether the post was legitimate, with some believing the page had been hacked. However, the post was still visible on the site after more than 36 hours.

It's difficult to objectively verify information concerning changes on the ground because of the siege and the resultant breakdown in communications in Mariupol.

There's no denying that Ukrainian forces have been in severe need of new weaponry, ammo, food, and water.

Ukraine's military apparently managed to restock troops with night and thermal vision goggles, portable battery charging packs, and even anti-tank weapons over the course of many weeks, but it got increasingly difficult.

"In the end, the city was surrounded so early in the invasion that there was never a chance to stockpile supplies," says Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank (RUSI).

"They've already lasted far longer than any external analyst anticipated was conceivable. So it's hard to predict how much longer they can keep going," he adds, adding that they've "achieved tremendous outcomes with very little." "..

As Russia tightened its grip on Ukraine, attempts to rotate forces or evacuate the injured became far more dangerous.

Two weeks ago, Russia's defense ministry said it shot down a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter 5 kilometers (three miles) off the coast of the Sea of Azov. It was assumed that it was coming from the city.

It claimed on Tuesday that up to 100 Ukrainian forces attempted to flee the steelworks plant by fighting their way out, but that half were killed by Russian fire and airstrikes and that more than 40 surrendered.

"The future of Ukraine directly depends on the strength of our resistance in all its manifestations," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video message to the nation late Tuesday. The future of us all, each of our cities, each of our villages. 

"And I appreciate everyone who comprehends this." Who refuses to give up even though the outcome appears to be a long way off? Because the darkest hour is always right before sunrise.

"I'd like to speak to those heroes who are having a particularly difficult time separately. Those who are in favor of Mariupol. The 36th marine brigade's marine battalion, the Azov special operations detachment, and the 12th operational brigade of Ukraine's National Guard. The State Border Guard Service is divided into divisions. The "Right Sector" volunteers. Employees of the 555th military hospital and the National Police."

The Azov battalion, an ultranationalist militia created in 2014 that Kyiv claims has been rehabilitated and is now part of Ukraine's National Guard, is also part of Mariupol's defense.

They make up a small portion of Ukraine's overall forces, but their presence has been a crucial focus of Moscow's propaganda war: the invasion is described as a "special military operation," with the goal of "demilitarizing" and "denazifying" Ukraine, according to Moscow.

Meanwhile, local forces have yet to substantiate accusations that Russia used chemical weapons in Mariupol this week. They serve as a stark warning of how the conflict may swiftly spiral out of control.

Significant numbers of Russian troops could be reassembled and sent elsewhere if Mariupol is fully captured, especially in other sections of the eastern Donbas region, where Moscow is preparing a big onslaught.

It might also see Moscow consolidate its gains north of Mariupol, which, according to Mr. Bronk, is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians are having such a difficult time relieving the city.

The forces could also be employed to support Ukrainian troops in Russian-controlled Kherson, where they have been seeking to recapture terrain with some success.
President Zelensky continued to use Mariupol as a metaphor for the war's heart. "If it stops beating, we'll be... weaker," he explained.